The best bets for Leipzig vs. Atalanta

Liverpool, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Villarreal are your Champions League semi-finalists. Now it is a question of filling the four available places in the penultimate round of the Europa League.

Thursday’s table is buzzing as three draws head into the second leg while just one goal separates Braga and Rangers in a fourth draw. Translation? The neutrals should be in for a great second leg.

But we’re not here to talk about who gets through. Rather, we are here to offer the best bets for the round.

I choose to avoid all eight available pages and focus on the totals as I believe that is where the value lies. So without further ado, here are my top two bets.

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Best bet #1 – Atalanta BC/RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals (-146)

Somehow this game didn’t clear that amount in the first leg in the RB Arena, but I’m expecting fireworks in Italy.

A 1-1 draw was the result in the first leg but there were also five combined expected goals – including at least two xG for each side – and a total of six big chances to score, according to In addition, Leipzig and Atalanta produced a total of 34 shots, three of which went off the post, and one missed penalty for Leipzig.

In addition, both sides come in strong offensive form. Leipzig have averaged 1.64 expected goals per 90 minutes in their last 10 games in all competitions, while Atalanta have averaged 1.34 expected goals per 90 minutes in their seven games in all competitions.

Manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have scored at least one expected goal in 12 of their last 16 games, while Leipzig have matched the benchmark in 12 of 15 games this calendar year.

Tyler Adams RB Leipzig Champions League
RB Leipzig’s Tyler Adams

But even those defenses have struggled to hold their own and have played some high-event games. In the same 15 games, Leipzig games averaged 2.6 xG combined, while the 16 Atalanta games averaged 2.3 xG.

While lying here is a high price to pay, I’ll be shocked if this game turns out to be low. All three Leipzig European games combined have seen 2.5 expected goals while three consecutive Atalanta European games have seen at least 2.2.

Money has come in on this sum, which has led to even inflated quotas. However, FanDuel offers the best line for this total at -146.

Best bet #2 – Team Lyon over 1.5 goals (+110) vs West Ham United

Bettors can basically ignore the underlying metrics from the first leg as Lyon played almost a full half man. However, I expect Lyon’s attack to dominate at home.

The French team, currently 10th in Ligue 1, have scored the most-anticipated goals at home in their domestic competition. Also worrying is the fact that Lyon, who have scored 36 home goals against 40.2 expected in Ligue 1+ Europa League, could be in for a positive attacking rebound.

It has also been 94 days since Lyon last scored under 1.3 expected goals on home soil. The last time it didn’t generate at least one xG at home? April 25, 2021, against Lille. Yes, you read that right – Lyon have created at least one xG in every home game this season.

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On the other hand, West Ham’s road defense has played questionably at best. Although the competition in England is much tougher than in France, the Hammers have still conceded the sixth most expected goals in the Premier League this season. In addition, manager David Moyes’ side have conceded at least one xG in three Europa League games in a row.

Given that West Ham also conceded 1.08 xGA in the half played at even strength in the first leg, expect Lyon to score multiple goals in a friendlier environment.

At plus money, DraftKings offers great value on this team’s entire prop. The best bets for Leipzig vs. Atalanta


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