The Atlantic states ‘More people carrying guns tends to lead to more shootings.’ Decades of data show them wrong

A few months ago, Atlantic published an article written by writer David A. Graham, explores the rise in violence the United States has experienced in 2020.

Overall, the paper analyzes the findings from “Unified Crime ReportingIt effectively disrupts what we know and – more importantly – what we don’t know about the latest crime trends in the US, which in 2020 has seen an increase record increase in homicide rate amid increasing violence.

On one particular point, however, Graham was simply wrong.

Graham noted that gun sales skyrocketed in 2020, as well as illegal police seizures guns, and he tries to tie this to an increase in violence.

“You can ask law-abiding people or you can ask law-abiding people, ‘Why are you armed? hand gun? ‘ Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri at St. Louis, told Graham: “I need to protect myself.

Exactly what Rosenfeld means in this statement is unclear, but Graham’s next sentence is clear.

“That creates a vicious cycle: More people carrying guns tends to lead to more shootings, which in turn increases the desire to carry a weapon for protection,” writes Graham. “When crime is going down, this dynamic helps it keep going down, but once it starts to go up, the feedback loop gets ugly.”

Whether this claim is from Graham or Rosenfield remains unclear. No links or quotes are provided to support the claim. What we do know is that the claim that “more people carrying guns tends to lead to more shootings” is simply untrue.

As economist Mark Perry indicate a few years In the past, the United States has seen gun violence decline steadily over decades as gun ownership rates have increased.

“According to data obtained from the Centers for Disease Control, there were 7 gun-related homicides for every 100,000 Americans in 1993 (see light blue line in chart),” Perry wrote. “By 2013… the gun homicide rate had dropped by nearly 50% to just 3.6 homicides per 100,000 population.

Perry points out that this decline occurred as the number of private firearms in the United States increased from about 185 million in 1993 to 357 million in 2013.

And in case you were wondering, non-fatal shootings followed a similar drop in fatal shootings, like Vox reported at the time. This is part of a larger decline in gun violence, which saw “a 39% drop in gun homicides between 1993 and 2011 and a staggering 69% drop in gun crime.” non-lethal gun use”.

Mr. Graham, who also reported to Newsweek and The Wall Street Journal, shamelessly a good writer and reporter. (Many of his points in the recent FBI crime report article were insightful.) But he was simply wrong that more gun ownership “tends to lead to more shootings. than”. The data simply does not support this claim. During a “staggering” decade-long downward trend in gun crime, gun ownership has steadily increased over time.

This does not mean gun ownership cause decline in gun violence. It most likely does, but that’s a harder question to answer. For example, Max Ehrenfreund, a Harvard scientist, has suggested that the decline in gun violence may have originated from a drop in alcoholism, more police on the streets, a boom in the economy during the Reagan years, and even less lead exposure.

Ehrenfreund says that researchers don’t really know for sure why the violence has decreased, but he says one thing is clear: “America has become a much less violent place.”

The decline in gun violence is certainly related to many factors, but the increase in gun ownership is certainly one of them.

Like Lawrence Reed have shown, fascinating research shows that guns prevent an estimated 2.5 million crimes each year in the US — 6,849 per day — nearly half a million of which are life-threatening. And it’s not hard to see why. After all, 60 percent of convicted criminals told researchers that they avoid committing such crimes when an armed target is suspected.

If you doubt these statistics, it should be noted that the Centers for Disease Control, in a report commissioned by President Obama following the 2012 Sandy Hook Massacre, It is estimated that crime is prevented with guns maybe even higher: up to 3 million per year (8,200 per day).

Again, we don’t know for sure. These are estimates. What we do know is that guns aren’t just used to commit crimes; They are also used to prevent and stop crime.

In his famous essay What is seen and what is not seen, the great economist Frédéric Bastiat notes that there is a widespread tendency that people focus on the visible effects of a certain policy or action and miss the unseen consequences. .

Gun control Proponents often make this mistake. They focus on crimes committed with (seen) guns—some of which are truly nightmare things—but ignore them all. Can not see, all crimes are prevented with guns.

Some people may not be ready to accept the idea that guns can prevent thousands of crimes in America every day. That’s OK.

But Atlantic should revise its statement that “more people carrying guns tends to lead to more shootings.” It is completely fictitious.

Jon Miltimore
Jon Miltimore

Jonathan Miltimore is the Managing Editor of FEE.org. His writing/reporting has been the subject of articles in TIME magazine, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Forbes, Fox News and Star Tribune.

Lines: Newsweek, The Washington Times, MSN.com, The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, the Epoch Times.

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https://www.tampafp.com/the-atlantic-claims-more-people-carrying-guns-tends-to-result-in-more-shootings-decades-of-data-show-theyre-wrong/ The Atlantic states ‘More people carrying guns tends to lead to more shootings.’ Decades of data show them wrong


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