And scientists say the particularly hot year is part of a long-term warming trend that shows signs of accelerating.
Two US science agencies – NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – and a private measurement group released their calculations of last year’s global temperatures on Thursday, and they all agree. says it’s not far behind the extremely hot 2016 and 2020.
Six different calculations found 2021 to fall between the fifth and seventh hottest years since the late 1800s. NASA says the year 2021 associated with 2018 is the sixth warmest, while NOAA ranks last year itself at sixth place.
La Nina – the natural cooling of areas in the central Pacific that changes weather patterns around the globe and brings icy deep sea water to the surface – has brought temperatures down, scientists say global as well as its flip side, El Nino, drove them in 2016.
However, they say 2021 is the hottest La Nina year on record, and that that year does not represent the cooling of anthropogenic climate change but provides much of the same heat.
“So it’s not quite as dominant as the warmest on record, but give it a few more years and we’ll be,” said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Berkeley Earth monitoring group that also ranks 2021. will see another record” hot Friday. “That’s the long-term trend and it’s an indomitable march upward.”
“The long-term trend is very, very clear. And that’s on us. And it’s not going to go away until we are,” said Gavin Schmidt, climate scientist and head of NASA’s temperature team. stop increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”
NASA and NOAA data agree that the past eight years have been the eight hottest years on record. Their data shows that global temperatures, averaged over a 10-year period to exclude natural variation, are nearly 2 degrees (1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than 140 years ago.
Other measurements for 2021 come from the Japan Meteorological Agency and satellite measurements by the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe and the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
There was such a particular rise in temperature about eight to 10 years ago that scientists began to look at whether the rise in temperature was accelerating. Both Schmidt and Hausfather say early signs point to it, but it’s hard to know for sure.
“If you just look at the last 10 years, how many of them are above the trendline compared to 10 years ago? Almost all,” Schmidt said in an interview.
There’s a 99% chance that 2022 will be among the 10 warmest years on record, and a 10% chance it will be the hottest year on record, Russell Vose, NOAA’s climate analysis team lead, said at a meeting. newspaper on Thursday.
Vose said the chance is 50-50 that at least one year in the 2020s will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times – the level of warming that countries agreed to try to avoid in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
While that threshold is important, extreme weather caused by climate change is hurting people today in their daily lives with a warming of about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit). , Vose and Schmidt say.
The average global temperature last year was 58.5 degrees (14.7 degrees Celsius), according to NOAA. In 1988, then-NASA chief climate scientist James Hansen made headlines when he testified before Congress about global warming in the hottest year on record at the time. Now, the 57.7 degrees (14.3 degrees Celsius) of 1988 ranks as the 28th hottest year on record.
According to Berkeley Earth, 1.8 billion people in 25 countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East had their hottest years on record last year, including China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Iran, Myanmar and South Korea.
The deep ocean, which stores the most heat in the oceans, will also set a record for warming in 2021, according to a new study, according to a newly published study.
Study co-author Michael Mann said: “Ocean warming, in addition to causing coral bleaching, which threatens marine life and fish populations, … also destabilizes the shelves. Antarctica’s ice and threaten … sea level rise if we don’t act. a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University.
The last time Earth had a colder-than-normal year as calculated by NOAA or NASA was 1976. That means that 69% of people on the planet – more than 5 billion people under 45 – have never experienced a year. so, based on United Nations data.
North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello, 39, who was not included in the new reports but thinks they make sense, said, “I just live in a warming world and I wish that younger generations would It doesn’t have to be like that. . . It doesn’t have to be this way.”
Editor’s Note: The video above is from a previous broadcast.
Copyright © 2022 of the Associated Press. Copyright Registered.
https://abc13.com/climate-change-earth-temperature-global-warming-science/11472997/ Temperatures continue: Earth hits record for 6th warmest year in 2021