RBC Heritage: Golf Betting, Predictions, Matchups

Now that we’ve broken down our favorite RBC legacy derivative games, it’s time to turn our attention to the matchups.

While I go against my model’s recommendation in one instance, I believe the following two matchup bets have the strongest value of the options available. Also, the backers get two players who typically play well on Dye designs and have a good history at this event, so the positives outweigh the negatives.

So without further distraction, here are my best matchup bets for the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town Golf Links.

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Best Bet #1 – Brian Harman (-120) over Denny McCarthy,

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Harman is widely known as a Pete Dye design whisperer and I think he’s going to live up to this weekend.

Although he does rank behind McCarthy in my statistical model, there are positive aspects that offset this fact. For example, Harman finished fifth at the Valspar Championship, another 7,200-yard course. He has also finished in the RBC Heritage top 30 in four of his last five appearances.

He’s also second in the field in strokes won: total in his last 24 rounds with dye designs, while McCarthy is 55th in the same category. Continuing to show off on Dye designs of 7,200 yards or less in the final 24 rounds widens the gap between the two players (Harman 5th, McCarthy 65th).

Finally, Harman only has a 60-point advantage (49th vs. 109th in the field) in both players’ approach play on dye designs of 7,200 yards or less.

Brian Harman
Brian Harman

And even if my model doesn’t rate it particularly highly, you can still get something positive out of this aspect. Harman ranks third in the field in SG:ARG and is 28th or better in fairways won and three-putt avoidance.

Given the course history, I’m willing to overlook this and support Harman to eclipse McCarthy, who has lost shots on approach in two of his last three Harbor Town appearances.

Best Bet #2 – Si Woo Kim (-110) vs Chris Kirk

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Both players are in the top-25 of my 24-round model, but Si Woo Kim is much higher across the board

For the last 24 laps, the South Korean is 3rd overall in my model versus 23rd for Kirk. However, over the last 36 laps, Kim is in 14th place while Kirk drops to 49th place.

Also, similar to Harman, the South Korea international has played very well on short dye designs. In the last 24 rounds, Kim is 14th in SG: overall on such courses, while Kirk is 53rd in the same category.

The course history benefit also belongs to Kim as he owns two top 15 finishes in five appearances at RBC Heritage. Although Kirk finished seventh last year, this was his first top-25 finish in nine attempts at Harbor Town. Additionally, Kirk has lost strokes on approach in two of his last three South Carolina appearances.

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On the other hand, Kim has scored shots on approach in two consecutive appearances at Harbor Town in which he made the cut, which he has achieved in 11 consecutive events. After all, he’s been fifth in the field for the last 24 rounds in SG: ARG, so we know he’s capable of pulling himself out of trouble.

This should be a close matchup, but expect Kim to come out on top. RBC Heritage: Golf Betting, Predictions, Matchups


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