Premier League Prediction: Bet on Crystal Palace

As the betting jargon goes, a must-win spot doesn’t equate to a will-win spot.

I believe that is the case with Thursday’s English Premier League game between Everton and Crystal Palace, where the former is overpriced as it finds itself in a relegation battle. However, this is an excellent opportunity to support an underdog who should be a favourite.

Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira’s side are unbeaten in their last four games (W2 D2) and have strong core stats. It has kept three of its last four opponents under an expected goal and could see positive offensive regression based on those games (four goals at 6.1 expected), per

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In addition, despite being played at their preferred venue, Palace dominated the second leg. It won the game 3-1 and won the expected goal fight by 2.2 to 1.33. It also won the battle for the big goalscoring chances 2-1, overtaking Everton in the attacking penalty area 31-11.

Also this season, Palace have scored at least a point in 14 of 17 games against bottom-half opponents and have conceded at least 0.9 expected goals in all but four games.

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Expect Palace midfield to dominate against an undermanned Everton defense and generate enough chances to pick up points. Although I would play the Palace moneyline at +275 or better, I’ll hedge lightly and take Palace +0.5 at -130 or better.

The game: Crystal Palace +0.5 Goals -115 (BetMGM) Premier League Prediction: Bet on Crystal Palace


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