There are only two full matchdays left in the 2021-22 English Premier League season, but there are still plenty of intriguing storylines.
None is greater than the respective title chases and final Champions League placement. This weekend, Manchester City are three points clear of Liverpool at the top, while Tottenham are just a point behind rivals Arsenal in fourth place.
With that out of the way, let’s turn to the best bets for the weekend – a hand and a money line parlay, which I believe offer the most value.
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Tip #1 – Brighton & Hove Albion Draw no bet (-115) vs Leeds United
Odds via BetMGM
Leeds United are in the middle of a relegation battle while Brighton sit comfortably in mid-table, but personally we rate the Seagulls higher.
Manager Graham Potter’s side have lost all three points just once in their last seven games and won five of their last six against non-Manchester City opponents on expected goals. Additionally, in the same six games against sides without the Manchester City name, Brighton have averaged 1.8 expected goals per 90 minutes and their defense kept all but one team (Arsenal) under an expected goal.
This is also a Brighton side who dominated the second leg against Leeds. Despite the final score being 0-0, Brighton won the game with goals expected at 2.59-0.9 and created two great scoring chances against zero for Leeds attack, according to fotmob.com.
It also marks Brighton’s third straight win in expected goals against Leeds, who have dropped at least 1.3 expected goals in all three meetings against the Seagulls.
Given that Leeds will be without a key figure in defender Luke Ayling (suspension), I have little confidence that a Leeds defense that has been 1.38 xG / 90 minutes in the last five against non-top 4 opponents conceded will contain this Brighton attack.
For these reasons I would play Brighton’s Draw, no bet line up to -130.
Tip #2 – Money Line Game: Tottenham and Manchester City (-117)
Odds via BetMGM
Sometimes the obvious plays can be the best, and I think that’s definitely the case here.
We start with Tottenham who, with a win, would overtake Arsenal before the Gunners play on Monday. The game against Burnley at home is developing into a good revenge point at Tottenham’s favorite venue. At Turf Moor, Tottenham lost 1-0 and 1.55-0.96 on expected goals, according to fotmob.com.
But prior to that result, Spurs had won three in a row and four of the last five against the Clarets, who are just outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Despite being 0-3-2 (WLD) in the Big Six this season, Burnley have lost all five games by at least 0.8 goals expected.
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Manchester City arrive in world-class form against West Ham United. The Cityzens have won five straight games by three goals and kept just one of those five teams under 2.75 goals expected.
It also dominated the second leg at the Etihad against the Hammers, winning 2–1 and 2.43–0.22 on goals expected. It also generated four big goalscoring chances from zero for West Ham.
Although manager David Moyes’ side are looking to earn a Europa Conference League spot, City will be too strong even at home.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/premier-league-odds-predictions-picks-brighton-tottenham/ Premier League Odds, Predictions, Tips: Brighton, Tottenham
