Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win?

TThis is the most unpredictable Oscars in years. Possibly because nobody has seen most of the nominated films. “What is a KODA“, you ask? Well, probably our latest Best Picture winner. But this is the weird new world of cinema, where the best films of the year — in the eyes of the Academy, at least — are those that have mostly been multiplex-bombed or were inevitable for a few days on Netflix or Apple TV before fading from cultural memory.

In general, however, this year’s Oscars are not very objectionable. During the surge in support for the very tracly KODA – about the only hearing member of a deaf family – is bizarre, as is the love for Tammy Faye’s eyesby Jessica Chastain and by Kenneth Branagh Belfastthere is much to celebrate here.

Nominated for the first time – but not in our hearts – Kirsten Dunst; Breakthrough Achievements by Ariana DeBose and Kodi Smit-McPhee Recognized; and consistently brilliant character actors like Aunjanue Ellis and Jesse Plemons finally get Oscars.

As befits the most overlooked films and performances, but also the most sparkly of the year: Lady Gaga is outspoken and provocative House Guccithe psychological disorder of Simon Rex in Red RocketJames Wan’s backward-strutting, Christmassy parasitic twin Malignant. Forget Amy Schumer; Why isn’t this thing hosting the ceremony this year?

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Ahead of the Oscars on Sunday 27th March – learn how to watch live here – we’ve taken a look at the key categories, highlighting who will win, who should win and who should have been watching.

best picture

Belfast

KODA

Don’t look up

drive my car

dune

King Richard

Liquorice Pizza

nightmare alley

The power of the dog

Westside Story

Will win KODA

Should win The power of the dog

Should take a look spencer

KODA looks like taking that but where is that spencer Love? Maybe it was just too weird: a paranoid cottage horror film about one of the most famous women in the world. God, the academy can be boring.

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Paul Thomas Anderson, Liquorice Pizza

jane campion, The power of the dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, drive my car

Steven Spielberg, Westside Story

Will win Jane Campion

Should win Jane Campion

Should take a look Lin Manuel Miranda, Tick, tick… boom!

For capturing the majesty of the American West – and on location in New Zealand! – delivering a twisty, elegant take on the psychological thriller The power of the dog, Jane Campion must win this category. But in terms of the directors who really should be here, dare I say Lin-Manuel Miranda? Everyone’s favorite punching bag, for which he did dizzying work behind the camera Tick, tick… boom! He deserves at least one spot higher than Kenneth Branagh.

Lin-Manuel Miranda and Andrew Garfield on the set of ‘Tick, Tick… Boom!’

(Macall Polay/Netflix)

Best actor

javier bardem, Be the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The power of the dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, tick… boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

denzel washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will win Will Smith

Should win Andrew Garfield

Should take a look simon rex, Red Rocket

Few would object to category favorite Will Smith winning, but Andrew Garfield is the strongest here. in the Tick, tick… boom! He channels mania, restlessness and heartbreak, often simultaneously. Then there is Red Rocket‘s Simon Rex, who would never have won an Oscar for playing a sociopathic porn star chasing a young girl, but his absence still hurts – he’s arguably making the performance of the year.

Best Actress

jessica chastain, Tammy Faye’s eyes

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, parallel mothers

Nicole Kidman, Be the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, spencer

Will win Jessica Chastain

Should win Kristen Stewart

Should take a look Alana Haim, Liquorice Pizza

Jessica Chastain seems to have become a stacked category with no clear favorites in recent weeks – odd since she’s really bad at it Tammy Faye’s eyes. The cinema’s best joggers are missing here, Alana Haim (of Liquorice Pizza) and Renate Reinsve (from The worst person in the world), both of whom played directionless women in their 20s who tended to roam the streets. Lady Gaga’s absence for House Gucci is also an oversight, whatever you think of the polarizing film itself.

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Best supporting actor

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, KODA

Jesse Plemons, The power of the dog

JK Simmons, Be the Ricardos

Kodi Smit McPhee, The power of the dog

Will win Troy Kotsur

Should win Kodi Smit McPhee

Should take a look mike faist, Westside Story

Troy Kotsur is a sure bet in this category, love of the academy KODA one of the bigger surprises of this awards season. Also excluded is Kodi Smit-McPhee, who does subtle, brilliant work as a sensitive, deceptively smart teenager The power of the dog. Once again, this category tends toward grizzled, older character actors rather than those under 35 years of age. With that in mind, it’s unfortunate that Mike Faist isn’t here – he’s the best in the business Westside Story; a whirling dervish full of charisma and courage.

Troy Kotsur, Marlee Matlin and Daniel Durant in CODA

(Apple)

The best supporting actress

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, Westside Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The power of the dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Will win Ariana DeBose

Should win Kirsten Dunst

Should take a look Martha Plimpton, Dimensions

Even beyond the fact that she’s long overdue for a win – let alone a first nomination – Kirsten Dunst is amazing The power of the dog, and really should have gotten away with that category. What an embarrassment of wealth for those who have been overlooked here! Plimpton and Dowd are multi-faceted vessels of grief in Fran Kranz’s brutal four-handed device DimensionsDagmara Dominczyk is subtly terrifying The Lost Daughterwhile Kathryn Hunter – who played all three weird sisters simultaneously – was the only inventiveness in the otherwise conventional The Tragedy of Macbeth. Then there’s Ruth Negga, who brought in Rebecca Hall’s heartbreaking pathos pass.

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast

Don’t look up

King Richard

Liquorice Pizza

The worst person in the world

Will win Don’t look up

Should win The worst person in the world

Should take a look Annett

The Oscars kinda love Adam McKay, even when he’s writing something heinous, so expect him to win Don’t look up Here. The funny way The worst person in the world but deserves the price much more. When it comes to films missing from this category, was any film from the last year as brave and courageous as the doll baby musical Annett? Again I ask, why are the Oscars so boring?

Olivia Colman in “The Prodigal Daughter”

(netflix)

Best Adapted Screenplay

KODA

drive my car

dune

The Lost Daughter

The power of the dog

Will win KODA

Should win The Lost Daughter

Should take a look The last duel

KODA will most likely assume so, apart from the sheer difficulty of translating a first-person novel into third-person psychodrama, maggie Gyllenhaal’s work on The Lost Daughter really should be the winner. It would have been nice to see too The last duel — and screenwriters Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon — were recognized here for Outstanding Screenplay Triptych. On the other hand, about five people saw this movie, so it didn’t really stand a chance.

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/features/oscars-2022-predictions-nominees-snubs-b2045010.html Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win?

JOE HERNANDEZ

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