Jermell Charlo (34-1-1) and Brian Castano (17-0-2) meet in Carson, Calif. on Saturday night to determine the undisputed 154-pound champion. The fight is a rehash of a hard fought fight from last July that ended in a tie. BetMGM makes Charlo the favorite at -200 while bettors can get Castano +175 and the fight ends in another draw at +1600 (16/1).
When these two first met, the three judges scored 114-114 even, 114-113 Castano and 117-111 Charlo. Anyone who saw the fight knows that Charlo’s 117-111 is a joke. I thought Castano deserved a close decision but either way the fight was knife sharp and that should be the case in the rematch as well.
Odds makers don’t expect either fighter to win by stoppage. The probability of the fight lasting the full 12 rounds is -225. It makes sense considering none of the fighters were ever stopped in a total of 55 fights. Four of Castano’s last six bouts went on the scorecards, while 17 of Charlo’s 36 bouts ended in decision. Charlo is +125 to win by points while Castano is +300.
This line should be more balanced, so there is some value for Castano. Charlo is the more skilled fighter overall but Castano’s pressure really bothered him in the first duel. However, Castano gassed and Charlo controlled the later rounds.
Castano is a pressure fighter who likes to start strong. The question is, can he sustain that pace for 12 rounds against a fighter of Charlo’s caliber? Another thing to keep in mind is that the rematch was originally scheduled for March but had to be postponed because Castano suffered a bicep tear. This is a tough injury for a boxer from which he will have to recover in just a few months.
This fight is a contrast in styles. Charlo wants to use his six-inch reach advantage to keep Castano out. Meanwhile, Castano constantly wants to put pressure on Charlo and make the fight ugly. Both fighters succeeded in the first fight, using their style and injuring their opponent.
In the first meeting, Castano landed 173 punches, but only nine were jabs. The 173 shots is the most ever landed against Charlo, and Castano hit 41 percent (164 of 400) of his power shots. Charlo threw 287 jabs but only landed 53 (18.5 percent). Charlo’s jab has to be a bigger factor in the rematch or he’ll be in trouble.
Castano has two draws on his record and believes he won both decisions. The WBO light middleweight champion has vowed not to let this fight go on the scorecards, although that could leave him vulnerable to a big throw. Castano is not known as a great defensive fighter and Charlo capitalized on that in the later rounds when they first met.
Some analysts believe Charlo will make the right adjustments this time around and the betting odds have moved his way. It will also be difficult for Castano to earn a decision in a close fight. That’s just the reality of boxing. Last Saturday, Dmitry Bivol Canelo Alvarez dominated but had to win the last round to avoid a tie on all three standings.
I like this matchup for Castano. The concern is that he comes out with his hair on fire and then fades in the later rounds. However, Charlo was hit badly in that first matchup and I don’t see that changing. This will be another close, competitive battle. Castano is worth a look from +150.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/jermell-charlo-vs-brian-castano-how-to-bet-rematch/ Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano: How to bet on a rematch