Now that we’ve broken down our statistical modeling strategy for the Charles Schwab Challenge, it’s time to share some of the top tips.
As always, we start with the selection of derivatives. This week I’ve identified four selections that I believe will be poised for good placements at Colonial Country Club because of their exemplary positions and past performances.
With that in mind, here are the four players I’m targeting this week. All odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are conflicting at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 – Viktor Hovland Top 10 Placement (+290)
Hovland finished a disappointing T-41 finish in last week’s PGA Championship, but I think Colonial will suit his game better.
In his only Charles Schwab Challenge appearance to date, Hovland hit a T-23 finish but finished 12th for the week in strokes won: tee-to-green. Additionally, in his last 24 rounds played at courses under 7,200 yards, Hovland ranks seventh in the field in SG: total.
Regarding my model, Hovland ranks second in both my 36 and 50 lap projections. If you factor in the 24 and 75 lap predictions, Hovland comes in no worse than fourth.
There’s a lot to like about Hovland, particularly in relation to the 36-round model. He ranks in the top 21 in the field in nine out of ten statistical measurements and ranks 15th or better in the field in six of those nine. Most importantly, he is 12th in SG: T2G, 9th in Strokes Won: Approach and 10th in Birdies Won or Better.
Also, Hovland has three top 10 finishes in his last six starts on the Tour. For these reasons, I would play the Norwegian at +200 or better for a top 10 finish.
Best Bet #2 – Collin Morikawa Top 10 Finish (+165)
A course that requires laser point accuracy on drives and approaches? Sounds like something built for Morikawa!
The 2020 PGA champion’s performances back that up as he finished 14th in 2021 after finishing second at Colonial in 2020 and losing in a playoff to eventual winner Daniel Berger. In addition, Morikawa performs very well on short courses – he’s second in the field in SG: Overall in his last 24 laps on qualifying courses and is seventh in SG: Approach over that span.
Morikawa is also someone who ranks very high in my various models. He is fourth in the 36-lap model and second in the 24-lap projection. Regarding the latter model, Morikawa ranks no worse than 14th in six out of 10 individual statistics and 10th or better in four of those six categories.
And despite only having a top-10 in his last three starts, Morikawa has finished eighth or better in two of those three appearances. With Colonial rewards being the strongest in terms of ending position correlation, you can expect strong performance from the Cal product.
Based on my modeling, I would play Morikawa at +140 or better in this market.
Best Bet #3 – Daniel Berger Top 20 Placement (+155)
For me this is the perfect time to buy cheap Berger, a past winner at this event with solid results on short courses.
In addition to his 2020 win, Berger finished 2021 in 20th place with a tie. Also, his latter performance in SG: Approach ranked him seven places higher than his final position, so bettors should trust Berger and his iron game.
Regarding my model, Berger is first in the field in all 24, 36 and 50 round model projections. Add in the 12, 75 and 100 round models and bettors will find that Berger is no worse than second in the field. Examining the 24-round model, Berger paced the field into three categories – SG: T2G, SG: Par 4’s, and Proximity: 150-175 yards. He also ranks fifth in SG: Approach, 11th in GIRs won, and 13th in birdies won or better.
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And although he hasn’t finished in the top 20 in any of his last three starts, Berger has finished 21-4-8-20-13 in his last five starts on courses under 7200 yards. Additionally, Berger has six top 20 finishes with the lone exception of a T21 in just his last seven starts at Colonial and its two most closely correlated tour courses – Harbor Town and TPC Southwind.
For all of these reasons, I would play Berger at +110 or better to get a top 20 finish.
Best Bet #4 – Cameron Davis Top 40 Placement (+160)
Davis put in a solid performance in the PGA Championship (T-48th) and now finds himself in a more favorable setup.
This is strictly a model game starring Davis, who is usually a boom or bust contestant. In his last two events on courses shorter than 7,200 yards – the Wells Fargo and the RBC Heritage – Davis had a missed cut and a T3, respectively. In his previous four qualifying course events, Davis ran 27-MC-45-26.
But he ranks 17th overall in my 36-lap model, 28th overall in my 24-lap projection, and 22nd overall in my 12-lap model. He is also 22nd in the field at SG:total in his last 24 qualifying rounds on this course type and has now gained strokes on the approach in five of his last six events.
Coming back to the 36 round model, there isn’t much to worry bettors. Despite being 84th in fairways won and 83rd in GIRs won, Davis ranks 13th in the field in SG: T2G, fifth in SG: Par 4’s, second in birdies or better, and first in putting 10-15 feet.
As a result, I expect a strong finish from the Aussie at this week’s Colonial.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/24/hovland-morikawa-headline-derivative-bets-at-charles-schwab-challenge/ Hovland, Morikawa Top Charles Schwab Challenge Derivative Betting