Most casual college basketball fans and recreational bettors spend the next two days focusing on their braces, trying to locate their sleepers, surprises, Final Four teams, and eventual national champions.
But remember, NCAA tournament odds are high and open to betting, meaning the market’s fiercest bettors are already tearing these games apart by jumping for the best early values while the crowds take care of to fill in their brackets.
With that in mind, I turned to our college basketball betting tools to locate the four games that are already landing professional betting action.
Vermont vs. Arkansas (Thursday)
Early betting trends already made this game a classic case of Sharps vs. Squares.
Sixty-three percent of spread tickets so far have landed in Arkansas, but every other data point suggests Wiseguys have already taken a position in Vermont.
First, even though only 37 percent of the spread action was attracted, 74 percent of the money actually wagered arrived at the catamounts, suggesting that the biggest bets are on the underdogs.
Second, Action Labs betting signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, are reporting two Steam moves in Vermont.
Steam refers to sudden, unified line moves in the market that are often the result of bettors with the respect and resources to get the odds on multiple sportsbooks on the same side of the same game at the same time.
Finally, line movement doesn’t lie, so it’s not at all surprising to see Vermont fall from +6.5 to between +5.5 and +5 depending on sportsbook as odds makers react to the influx of smart money.
Akron vs. UCLA (Thursday)
Pro and recreational bettors are aligned on Akron vs. UCLA. 85 percent of spread bets have gone on the Zips, while the Wiseguys have already dampened the underdogs twice.
With bettors betting on Akron, this line has dropped from +15.5 to +13.5 across the market.
Even so, FanDuel still hung the Zips at +14, so be sure to check out Action Network’s College Basketball Live Odds Page to find the best line available before jumping into the matchup.
State of Iowa vs. LSU (Fr.)
While pro bettors look to underdogs in the above games, they have instead taken a position on the over for Iowa State vs. LSU.
That total opened at 123.5 on DraftKings, and three separate waves of sharp overactions have pushed that number to a consensus of 126, with some trades already as high as 126.5.
At the time of writing, BetMGM was offering this number at 125.5, which is by far the best on the market.
Colgate vs. Wisconsin (Friday)
Once again we have punters of all skill levels and experiences lined up on the same page at an NCAA tournament game.
Colgate opened as a 9.5 point underdog at BetMGM and the combination of sharp and public actions that hit the Raiders has brought that line down to a consensus of +7.5, with PointsBet correcting half a point further to +7.
If you plan on chasing the 87 percent of bettors to take the points in this matchup, don’t settle for +7 and make sure you hold onto Colgate with the commonly available number of +7.5.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/15/four-games-march-madness-2022-bettor-are-already-focusing-on/ Four March Madness 2022 games that bettors are already focusing on