English Premier League odds, predictions, table, games today

It’s the final day of the Premier League and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Manchester City can easily win the title by beating Aston Villa, but Liverpool come into their game against Wolves just a point behind the Cityzens. At the other end of the table, Leeds will need to improve on Burnley’s result to survive, while the Clarets can guarantee safety with a win or match Leeds’ result.

Last place in the Champions League is also technically in play, but Tottenham would need to lose to bottom-placed Norwich, while Arsenal would need to win against Everton to snag the last UCL spot.

All in all, I’m looking for my best bets here. All odds are subject to change and are reflected at the time of writing. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

English Premier League Predictions Today

Crystal Palace tie no bet (+115) vs. Manchester United (11:00am ET)

United have absolutely nothing left to play and need to make their way to Crystal Palace, who have played beautifully at home this season.

Only the top 5 clubs in the table can boast a better expected goal difference at home than Palace, who could also see a positive regression based on their home performances (+9 goal difference at +10.7 xGDiff), per fbref.com.

What’s more, Palace haven’t laid any eggs at home against the best clubs in the league. In six games against the Big Six and West Ham, Palace have averaged +1.8 expected goal difference and have managed at least 1.5 expected goals in four of those six games. His attack could also see a positive regression based on those six performances as Palace have scored nine goals from 10 expected.

Also, United’s defense has not traveled well this season. With just one away game left, the Red Devils have conceded the fourth most goals expected away from home this season – only ahead of Southampton, Leeds United and Norwich City – and sit 10th in the xGDiff away table.

United also struggle a lot in games against top-half xGDiff home teams. They have lost four straight games to such an opponent (all earned based on expected goals) and are 3-4-1 (WLD) in those eight games with an expected goal difference of -8.1. His target differential is actually -7, so a negative regression could be on the way.

For these reasons, play Palace at +105 or better on the draw with no bet line, or at -145 or better at +0.5.

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Burnley vs. Newcastle United (11:00 a.m. ET) Under 2.5 goals (-120)

In a way, Burnley have to come through here, but I don’t expect them to suddenly lose their defensive form.

Also, Burnley have actually had decent defensive results at home. In 18 games at Turf Moor, Burnley have conceded just 1.33 goals expected per 90 minutes and kept two of their last three visitors under 1.1 goals expected. In addition, Burnley have kept five to 1.5 or fewer expected goals in eight home games this season against opponents from the bottom half.

At the same time, Newcastle’s defense have found great form as the season draws to a close. In their last five games against sides not named Manchester City or Liverpool, the Magpies have conceded just 2.8 expected goals overall, with all five opponents staying under 0.7 xG, per fbref.com, and three of five under 2 .5 goals remained.

Since January 15, Newcastle have only allowed 0.69 xG/90 minutes in 12 games against bottom-half opponents, with eight of those 12 games falling below that benchmark.

However, that Newcastle offense has been overheating lately – nine goals expected at 8.5 – and could see a negative regression. It also only generated 1.3 xG in the reverse match against Burnley, so don’t expect a blowout.

As a result, I will play this market to -130.