The Atlantic hurricane season could head for a seventh consecutive record season of above-average activity if an outlook released by European forecasters is confirmed.
the Long-term outlook from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecastsrunning through the peak of the tropical weather season shows that cyclone energy in the basin could be about 120 percent of normal.
While the center doesn’t break down how many cyclones they are expected to form, expected accumulated cyclone energy can give forecasters clues as to how busy the season could be.
ACE is a metric which quantifies how much energy a tropical cyclone uses over its lifetime.
The longer and more intense a tropical cyclone, the higher the ACE value that accumulates.
The ACE produced during the Season 2021 was 142 or around 151 percent of the long-term average in the years 1951 to 2020.
This year’s forecast of 120 percent of the average does not account for potential activity in October or November, which could impact how active a season might be.
The world will get its first look at the expected number of tropical storms and hurricanes when Colorado State University releases its full-year outlook on April 7, followed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast in May.
Signs of an active season
Several ingredients that forecasters are seeking for increased tropical cyclone activity are now in place and, if sustained for the next several months, could lead to an active Atlantic Basin hurricane season.
meteorologists believe La Niña or neutral atmospheric patterns should persist for most of the season.
During these events, wind shear tends to be lower across the basin, allowing cyclones to form without presenting an obstruction.
Additionally, water temperatures are warmer than average in much of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.
Sea temperatures vary widely, but trends suggest the oceans will continue their warm phase into cyclone season.
CSU and NOAA forecasters consider these and several other measures before releasing their tropical cyclone forecasts.
The Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/atlantic-hurricane-season-potentially-busy-experts/ Atlantic hurricane season potentially busy: experts