A defeat in Ukraine could put Taiwan in trouble

Failure is not an option for Ukraine when the whole world is watching – including them Chinese Communist Party, who hopes that the West will fail. Because Beijing knows that if Russia beats Ukraine, Taiwan will be easy prey.

The stakes cannot get any higher. war criminal Vladimir Putin leaves all in a massive offensive stretching from Kharkiv in the north to Mariupol in the south. His goal: to cut off as large a chunk as possible the eastern Ukraine as possible and make sure he can say he was victorious in his war of aggression that has been getting worse and worse in record time.

The bad news for Kyiv is that the cards are now stacked against it as the war that has been waged so far is on the brink change dramatically.

The Donbass region will not favor the current composition of the Ukrainian armed forces and Western weapons, which are mostly defensive and built for combat in urban conditions.

Putin’s plan of attack will be deployed large armored columns This includes tanks, armored personnel carriers and many bombers in the sky to conquer large parts of the flat, hilly country.

Ukrainian soldiers study a Swedish Carl Gustaf M4 shoulder-launched weapon system during a training session near Kharkiv, Ukraine April 7, 2022. Western weapons pouring into Ukraine helped blunt Russia's initial offensive and certainly appears a key one Role to play in the rapprochement battle for the contested Donbass region of Ukraine.
A Ukrainian soldier trains to use a Swedish Carl Gustaf M4 launcher April 7, 2022 near Kharkiv, Ukraine.
AP Photo/Andrew Marienko, file

In many ways, this is the war that Russia was built for during the Cold War and has been training for for the last two decades.

That means trouble for Kiev’s freedom fighters. Ukrainian forces will not be able to use the same guerrilla-style tactics they used in cities, where they could be pushing Russian forces into dead zones, attacking convoys on roads, and getting tanks rolling slowly on freeways.

Going onto land means Russian tanks can move far and fast, with assets in the air to cover their every move. And Ukraine won’t be able to fight back that easily, since their armored divisions are much smaller and much less advanced, and have much less air cover.

But all this does not guarantee that Kyiv will lose the battle for eastern Ukraine and the Donbas. We just have to adjust our strategy and realize that past progress does not mean victory is certain.

Now is the time for the West to hurry more military aid as soon as possible to Kyiv.

A Ukrainian service member drives a captured Russian T-72 tank in the recently liberated village of Lukianivka in the Kyiv region, Ukraine, March 27, 2022.
Ukraine desperately needs T-72 tanks to fight against Russia.
REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko/FILE
An aerial view shows a crater and destroyed houses in the village of Yatskivka in eastern Ukraine April 16, 2022.
An aerial view shows a crater and destroyed houses in the village of Yatskivka in eastern Ukraine April 16, 2022.
AFP via Getty Images

As a first step, Ukraine must send all tanks that are in the armored corps of the former Warsaw Pact countries so that their forces can be deployed quickly, since there is no time for training now.

Kyiv especially needs T-72 tanks who can take on the best that Russia will throw at them. Ukraine is trained and knows how to fight with them.

Ukraine will also need more means capable of hitting Russian tanks and armor from the air. That means many more switchblade drones capable of launching kamikaze attacks on Putin’s forces and slowing down their attack.

Kyiv also needs a massive amount of air defense systems to ensure Moscow cannot slaughter Ukrainian ground forces once they gain a foothold. S-300 must be sent to Kyiv as soon as possible Batteries for Patriot missiles sent later when the training can be done over time.

Then there are the long-term needs that must be met to ensure a war that is likely to last months, and perhaps longer, can be won.

    A Jin-class Type 094A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is seen during a military display in the South China Sea April 12, 2018.
Taiwan could be threatened by a Chinese invasion if Russia captures Ukraine.

The West and Kyiv need to set up training programs to ensure Ukraine can deploy more modern surplus military equipment that could help. This means that along the border, older M1 Abrams tanks could be outfitted with Ukrainian soldiers trained on such platforms and perhaps even older Predator drone systems.

These ideas are just the bare minimum of what should be considered to ensure that Ukraine is not gutted and turned into another Russian puppet state. Putin will only ask for peace when he knows he has no viable path to victory.

America and the West can and should be the arsenal of democracy once again, and China will show that if they try the same strategy of conquest with Taiwan or in South China SeaBeijing would pay a heavy price.

Harry J Kazianis is President and CEO of the Rogue States Project

https://nypost.com/2022/04/19/a-ukraine-loss-could-be-trouble-for-taiwan/ A defeat in Ukraine could put Taiwan in trouble


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