WGC Dell Match Play best bets: predictions and odds

What a day we had in the opening round at the Austin Country Club for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play!

Louis Oosthuizen made six birdies… and lost. Jordan Spieth took the win after nine holes and his pal Justin Thomas was upset with Luke List as an almost +200 underdog.

Luckily, our two day one matchup bets – Abraham Ancer and Dustin Johnson – emerged victorious. Now we’re trying to continue that positive momentum on day two when I introduce another pair of games for the second phase of round-robin play.

All odds are provided courtesy of BetMGM and are conflicting at the time of writing.

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Sergio Garcia Draw no bet (+105) vs. Collin Morikawa

I won’t quite say that opponent Robert MacIntyre handed Morikawa his 2&1 win on a silver platter, but he came awfully close.

The way the Scot played, Morikawa should have been lounging at the clubhouse on hole 12. Half of his six-hole wins came on par, including once on a par 5. MacIntyre was +3 through 12 holes and only carded two birdies Wednesday.

On the other hand, all but two of Garcia’s six-hole wins came by birdie or better, including an eagle on the par-five 12th. He also recorded just a single bogey through 15 holes.

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We know Sergio is a big fan of this course – he made the knockout round last year AND is a fucking member of the Austin Country Club. That home advantage should come in handy against Morikawa, who was 19 places behind Garcia in my pre-tournament model.

Also, there is a glaring discrepancy between these two players in the birdies or better-gained metric in my model. Entering the tournament, Garcia finished third in the field in that category, while Morikawa finished an unimpressive 42nd in the field.

If Sergio doesn’t magically fall behind at the Austin Country Club, I’d personally have him as a favorite in this match. Since he has plus money, I have no choice but to fire at the Masters winner.

WGC Dell best bets
Abraham Ancer shoots

Abraham Ancer Tie no bet (-125) vs. Brian Harman

Let’s all get back on the Back Abe Ancer train, shall we?

These two players went in opposite directions on opening day and I’m honestly shocked that Ancer isn’t a bigger favorite. The Mexico international shot a six-under 65 during Harman on Wednesday did Competitor Webb Simpson earned his win by shooting a two-over-73 while posting just two birdies.

I recognize that both players have positive price histories here, but Ancer also comes with many advantages based on my pre-tournament model. He is third in SG: Approaching Harman’s 31st, First in SG: Tee-to-Green Against Harman’s 31st, and Second in Good Drives Gained to Harman’s 26th.

While Harman brought a pre-tournament advantage in SG: putting, Ancer allayed my concerns in that category with Wednesday’s performance.

Additionally, Ancer has proven to be a pete-dye design whisperer in recent appearances. He has won shots on the field in 10 consecutive events at Dye Designs, including last year’s Match Play. Overall, Ancer has won five of his last seven games at Austin Country Club, so I think he’s worth another episode tomorrow.

My predictions put Ancer close to -140, so I’m happy to support him back at -125. WGC Dell Match Play best bets: predictions and odds


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