West Ham is the choice against weak street opponents Everton

West Ham United must avoid the trap of looking ahead to the Europa League quarter-finals when they host a side from Everton in a Premier League relegation battle at the London Stadium on Sunday.

The current EPL table should provide enough motivation for the Hammers. They are three points behind Tottenham and Manchester United in the battle for Europa League spots next season.

Led by former Everton boss David Moyes, West Ham won 1-0 in their last league game in October. That result began Everton’s miserable run of 11 points in 20 games in the English top flight.

Everton are in a strange place. Metrics suggest the Toffees are playing worse than Rafael Benitez under Frank Lampard, but the former is decidedly more popular with fans and the home performances had a clear emotional bite they once lacked.

West Ham manager David Moyes
West Ham manager David Moyes
AFP via Getty Images

That lead at Goodison Park could be enough to keep the Toffees alive, but if they stay in the EPL it seems unlikely it will be because of their away form.

Meanwhile, the Hammers have a renewed focus on home defense. And their most recent, one-sided 3-1 defeat at Spurs is forgivable. It happened less than 72 hours after extra time in the second leg of the Europa League round of 16 triumph against Sevilla, the LaLiga standout.

Given all of this, the value at hand over a money line bet is on the home side. Even if Everton finds a goal somehow, it weighs on credulity that it would hit the back of the net twice in this matchup. And the Toffees have conceded multiple goals in every away game in the league this season.

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Of these away opponents, the Hammers are better than all but Spurs. And if they had the Spurs’ brand credibility, they would be unlikely to receive -130 odds, which means only a 56.5 percent chance of winning.

If you need to get more aggressive then the Everton team is also a solid game with under 0.5 goals total at +140 odds and 41.7 percent implied. However, I am more confident on the ML bet.

The game: West Ham United Money Line (-130) West Ham is the choice against weak street opponents Everton


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