The tropics are calm while the Atlantic basin nears peak hurricane season

The busy start of September in the Atlantic basin has faded as Danielle and Earl — two hurricanes that scoured the Atlantic last week — are no longer tracked by the National Hurricane Center.

Earl made the transition from a hurricane to an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic on Saturday.

An extratropical cyclone is a system that derives its energy from the collision of a cold mass of air with warm, moist air. This type of storm system can generate large waves and hurricane-force winds, but because it does not have a warm air core, it is not considered a tropical storm or hurricane.

The remnants of former Hurricane Earl continue to generate big waves across much of the Atlantic, and the threat of life-threatening surf and rip currents is expected to continue along the US East Coast through the start of the workweek.

Aside from Earl’s remnant, the Atlantic basin is unusually calm for mid-September — the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season — with only two weak disturbances in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic catching the FOX Forecast Center’s attention.

“While it’s pretty calm where we should be right now, it could rise at any time,” said Katie Garner, FOX Weather meteorologist.

Here’s what to expect in the tropics over the coming week.

Tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic

A tropical disturbance centered just off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear to be only marginally favorable, according to the FOX Forecast Center, so this disturbance is likely to be slow to develop as it moves west or west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.

There is a 20 percent chance of development in the eastern Atlantic over the next five days.
The eastern Atlantic will be monitored for a possible development over the next five days.
FOX weather

The NHC currently gives the tropical disturbance a slim chance of developing over the next five days.

Tropical disturbance in the mid-Atlantic

Another tropical disturbance, located about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean islands, is producing a large area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Slow development of this disturbance over the next few days is possible, according to the FOX Forecast Center, as it moves generally west-west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the Caribbean islands by the end of the week.

The NHC also gives this tropical disturbance a low probability of development over the next five days.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is slowly beginning

Early to mid-September is the time of year when sea surface temperatures are warmest, upper level winds ease, and drier air is not typically widespread.

In contrast to recent active years, dry air has been more dominant than usual in the eastern parts of the Atlantic basin, which has inhibited tropical cyclone organization and development.

August ended without seeing a single tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin for the second time in the satellite era.

In an average year, eight named storms and three hurricanes have typically already formed, but so far in 2022, the tally is just five named storms and two hurricanes.

The next system to slot into a tropical storm with winds of at least 40 miles per hour will be called Fiona.

There are no immediate concerns about direct tropical threats to the US coastline.

Computer forecast models show another significant lull in tropical activity for at least the next week. The tropics are calm while the Atlantic basin nears peak hurricane season


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