The best matchup bets at the Mexico Open: Back these two underdogs

Minimal time separates golf weather from the start of the Mexico Open. But before the first tee ball is hit, it’s time to share one last pair of picks.

While Tuesday’s focus was on our top derivatives bets, today is all about my favorite matchup bets for the tournament. I have identified the following two picks as the most valuable, both of which I believe are false favorites.

So, without hesitation, here are my best Mexico Open matchup bets.

Best bet #1 – Patrick Rodgers (-108) over David Lipsky

Odds on Fanduel sports betting

Rodgers is only a slight underdog in this duel, but my modeling ranks him ahead of Lipsky.

Over the last 36 laps, the Stanford product in my model is 50th overall, while Lipsky is 90th in the same span. Also, Rodgers is actually above average in my two most important categories: He’s 19th in driving distance over the last 36 laps and 45th overall in SG: Approach. Just past his final 24 laps, Rodgers is 19th and 31st in the field in the same two categories.

Patrick Rodgers photographs at Zurich Classic.
Patrick Rodgers shoots during the Zurich Classic.
Getty Images

Although Lipsky has some solid approach numbers over the last 24 laps – he’s 33rd in the field in SG: Approach for this model – there are other concerns. Lipsky is outside the top-100 in the field in both driving distance and bogey avoidance, and ranks 92nd in the field in terms of chances won over the last 24 rounds of qualifying.

Also, the other advantage Rodgers brings to this matchup is his putting record in Bermuda. In laps on this surface, Rodgers gains 0.12 strokes/round on the field while Lipsky loses 0.15 strokes/round in laps in Bermuda.

Despite missing the cut in four of his last seven events, Rodgers has won shots on the approach in five of those seven events. Lipsky, on the other hand, has won in just two of his last seven approach shots, despite making the cut in five of those events.

On a course where iron play is crucial, expect Rodgers to win this matchup.

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Best Bet #2 – Lanto Griffin (+105) over Kevin Streelman

Odds on DraftKings sportsbook

This is easily one of the biggest discrepancies in modeling for me, and I’m shocked that Streelman is this big favorite.

In the last 24 laps, Griffin was 13th overall in my model, while Streelman arrives in Mexico 82nd overall in the 24-lap model. The gap between the two widens even further in my 36-lap model, as Griffin is 10th overall, while Streelman is 92nd in that particular time span.

The only way I can see Streelman going well is if this event plays a lot harder than I expected. To his credit, Streelman is 11th in the field in bogey avoidance for the last 36 laps. However, he is outside the top-100 in opportunities won and is 120th in the field near: 175-200 yards.

On the other hand, Griffin is seventh in the field in shots won: approach, 10th on opportunities won, and 40th overall at close: 175-200 yards. Additionally, Griffin is 28th in the field in SG: overall in his last 36 rounds on courses longer than 7,400 yards, while Streelman is 42nd in the same category.

Finally, the last advantage Griffin has here is previous results on correlated courses. For example, at Pebble Beach, Griffin recorded a 16th place finish while Streelman missed the cut. Griffin also came out on top at another coastal course, finishing 40th to Streelman’s 51st at the RSM Classic.

For all of these reasons, I would play Griffin down to -115 in this matchup and think +105 is a steal. The best matchup bets at the Mexico Open: Back these two underdogs


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