The campaign poll shows Zeldin with 45.5 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Hochul, the rest is undecided. The hypothetical matchup is within the margin of error of the poll, meaning the race is a dead heat.
The poll of 800 voters, conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates, found crime to be the #1 problem, with one in five respondents citing it as their top concern.
Another 17 percent of voters said taxes were their top concern.
Zeldin, who was elected a candidate at the Republican Party convention earlier this month, must first grapple with a potential primary race Andrew Giulianiformer Westchester County executive Rob Astorino and businessman HarryWilson.
The outcome of the general election depends on turnout — and where it comes from in the state. Democrats are outpacing Republicans in New York by more than 2 to 1, with a growing number of registered independents.
McLaughlin says public polls typically overstate New York City’s votes and understate Republicans.
His poll got 34 percent of the statewide vote from New York City.
During the 2018 gubernatorial race and midterms in New York City, 1 million more voters turned out than in 2014, and Andrew Cuomo’s victory margin increased 14 percentage points over GOP nominee Astorino in 2014 up 23 percentage points above GOP rivals Marc Molinaro four years later..
Democrat turnout was higher than normal in 2018, when former President Donald Trump, who was unpopular in New York, was in office.
But now Joe Biden is president responsible for the worst inflation in five decades, skyrocketing crime in urban areas as a belligerent Russia invades Ukraine. Biden’s troubles could skyrocket GOP turnout and depress Democratic turnout this fall.
The poll even got Biden underwater in blue New York with just 43 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval. Hochul had a 44 percent approval rating and 48 percent disapproval.
The poll says 51 percent of voters prefer a Republican candidate who will serve as a check and balance for the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
“Over the past year, we’ve built an unprecedented movement fueled by thousands of volunteers, tens of thousands of grassroots donations, and dozens of New Yorkers waking up and doing whatever it takes to save our state,” Zeldin said.
“These numbers are not due to luck. They come from hard work, the right message, strategy and execution, and they don’t take anything for granted. As we continue to carry our message from this month’s Republican and Conservative conventions, and having aired television and radio commercials nationwide since early February, it has never been more clear that the problems are on our side, we have the momentum of our side, and there’s a big red wave headed straight for New York in 2022.”
Hochul – who replaced the disgraced ex-gov. Andrew Cuomo after he quit amid sexual harassment allegations last August — is the big favorite to win her Democratic primary against the city’s public prosecutor Jumane Williams and Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/14/republican-lee-zeldin-says-he-can-beat-ny-gov-kathy-hochul/ Republican Lee Zeldin Says He Can Beat New York Gov. Kathy Hochul