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Poll showing GOP lead in NY17 highlights route to House majority passes through NY

It was once unthinkable, but a route to Republican control of the House of Representatives could lead through New York.

A new poll showing Republicans ahead in newly drawn congressional district 17 gives Democrats another reason to worry about how the GOP could win the US House of Representatives this November by using the swing ballot in the midterm elections. Districts flipped across the Empire State.

GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Rockland) has a 49% to 45% lead over Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Hudson Valley) ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to data released Tuesday by the National Republican Congressional Committee were released.

The poll by GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates, which had a 4.5% margin of error, shows that GOP attacks endanger Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Maloney as he oversees his party’s national effort, its eight-seat majority to defend in the House of Representatives November.

“I will fight to cut taxes and spending to fight inflation and end cashless bail to restore safety in our communities,” Lawler told The Post. “That’s what this election is about and the polls back it up.”

The race is among a half-dozen races that appear competitive this year after the state’s highest court nullified plans for a so-called “high-ulmander” that would have left the GOP with just a few super-red seats.

A new poll found GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a lead over Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the race for the newly drawn 17th congressional district seat.
A new poll found GOP state Rep. Mike Lawler has a lead over Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in his race for the newly drawn 17th congressional district seat.
Randy Monceaux Photography/Mike Lawler Congress via AP

“The Democrats screwed up by getting greedy with congressional lines in New York; now they’re paying the price with competitive racing across the state. This is great news for voters who haven’t had the opportunity to participate in truly competitive elections in years,” Republican policy adviser William O’Reilly said in a text.

Republicans are also aiming to flip retired Rep. Tom Suozzi’s congressional seat on Long Island, as well as District 18 and District 19 in the Hudson Valley — while defending three races on Long Island, another on Staten Island and a seventh in the Syracuse area .

No other state has a critical mass of swing neighborhoods like New York, with the nonpartisan FiveThirtyEight website classifying three races (two in the Hudson Valley and one in Syracuse) as New York toss-ups — more than any other state.

Lawler's lead over Maloney shows the GOP a way to turn the House of Representatives around in the midterms.
Lawler’s lead over Maloney shows the GOP a way to turn the House of Representatives around in the midterms.
AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez

“People from across the country who want to help win battlefield districts will either discover what it’s like to be stuck on the Long Island Expressway or enjoy the fall foliage in the Hudson Valley and upstate,” quipped Democratic policy adviser Evan Stavisky.

FiveThirtyEight gives Lawler a 10% chance of beating Maloney, who recently reported he has about $2.4 million to spend, compared to $435,000 for Lawler, who has help from the national party.

“Lawler is a radical MAGA Republican whose dangerous, aloof positions are incompatible with this district; He supported the decision to oust Roe, voted against bills protecting New York’s reproductive rights, and opposed sane gun safety reforms,” ​​Maloney spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg said in response to what she called the “pathetically skewed” poll that let her boss down.

Persistent inflation could give Lawler a boost in the final stretch of the campaign and other races where Republicans are locked in an all-out battle with Democrats for control of the US House of Representatives.

Incumbent MP Nicole Malliotakis has a 93% chance of beating the ex-MP. Max Rose in a rematch of their 2020 race while GOP nominee Nicholas LoLota has a 69% chance of winning an open race for Congressional District 1 on Long Island, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Maloney remains the favorite for re-election, according to the website, while Democratic candidates Laura Gillen and Robert Zimmerman have the advantage over Republicans Anthony D’Esposito and George Santos in open races on Long Island.

The contests between newly elected Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Hudson Valley) and Rep. Colin Schmitt (R-Orange) and the Syracuse open race between Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams remain amid Democrat hopes for Ryan’s victory a draw a special election in August could portend more victories.

But an encouraging poll for Lawler has him and other Republicans optimistic, with the help of voters in supposedly super-blue New York, where Democrats like Maloney are said to feel safe about regaining control of the US House of Representatives.

“On November 8th, we will defeat Nancy Pelosis’ campaign manager and serve as a check for the Biden administration,” Lawler promised Tuesday.

https://nypost.com/2022/09/13/poll-showing-gop-edge-in-ny17-highlights-path-to-house-majority-goes-thru-ny/ Poll showing GOP lead in NY17 highlights route to House majority passes through NY

JACLYN DIAZ

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