PGA Championship 2022 Odds, Tips, Golf Betting, Matchups

We’ve broken down our four favorite derivative bets for the 2022 PGA Championship and now turn our attention to the matchups.

In all of the following three cases, I’ve identified players that the market has classified as underdogs, but my predictions place them as favorites. Additionally, there were some interesting line moves in these pairings.

With that in mind, let’s dive into my three matchup picks for the PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club.

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Best Bet #1 – Keegan Bradley (+120) over Tyrrell Hatton

Call me crazy but I can’t believe this price for this particular matchup.

If you’re reading my Derivatives column, you already know I’m high on Bradley, who sits in the top 10 in all of my 24, 36, and 50 round model predictions, opening here as a +100 underdog became. It’s also worth noting that Bradley has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts, including a fifth-place finish in the PLAYERS Championship.

On the other hand, I don’t understand the love for Hatton at all. He is 91st in my 50-lap model, 88th in my 36-lap prediction and 79th overall in his last 24 qualifying rounds. In relation to the latter prediction alone, Hatton ranks within the top-60 and ranks outside the top-80 in only one statistical measure in both driving distance (81st) and SG: around the green (110th).

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After all, Hatton has been holding a terrible record in the majors lately. In his last five starts he was 52-MC-MC-38-18. He also missed the cut in all three majors held in calendar year 2020.

Even if you just look at both players’ record shots on over 7400-yard courses, Bradley still has the advantage. In his last 36 qualifying rounds, the 2011 PGA champion finished 26th in SG: total, while Hatton is 74th.

For all of these reasons, I would play Bradley down to -125.

Best Bet #2 – Talor Gooch (+125) over Alex Noren

Gooch is not one I particularly like when it comes to the derivatives markets, but I really like him in this duel.

Talor Gooch
Talor Gooch
USA TODAY sports

The Oklahoma State product ranks 55th on my 24th round, but there are a few positive things in its favor. He was T14 in the Masters and has a strong approach game (26th in SG: approach in his last 24 rounds) that will see Gooch succeed in Southern Hills.

Additionally, Gooch ranks 19th in the field in SG: Overall in his last 24 laps on courses longer than 7400 yards. Noren, on the other hand, is 110th in the former category and doesn’t do well in my model.

The Sweden international is 94th overall in my 24-round model and 100th overall in my 36-round prediction. Regarding the previous projection, Noren ranks 90th in SG: Approach and 105th in Driving Distance. He also ranks 87th in strokes won: par 4’s. In fact, the only category in which Noren ranks higher than 50 in SG: Par 3, the least stressed category.

And yet, are you telling me that he wins this duel almost 60 percent of the time, based on his implied odds? I just don’t buy it. Play Gooch up to -110.

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Best Bet #3 – Jason Day (+115) over Kevin Na

Odds on DraftKings sportsbook

When that was open, Day was a -120 favorite. Now he sits 35 cents lower and I can’t help but disagree with the move.

In terms of my 24-round prediction, these players couldn’t be further apart. Day is 28th overall in this model while Na is 145th. Despite both players sitting outside the top-100 in SG: Approach, Day’s advantage in both drive distance and short-game creativity (10th and 4th in drive distance and SG: ARG, respectively) should give an edge over Na, der the ranking is outside the top 100 in four out of six statistical measures.

Additionally, Day is 38th in SG: Overall for his last 36 rounds for 7,400+ yards, while Na is an equal 106th.

Also, for all his struggles, Day tends to show up at the PGA Championship. He’s made the cut in nine straight appearances and finished 44-4-23-19 in just his last four starts. On the other hand, Na has gone MC-MC-MC-19 in his last four PGAs and has missed the cut in four consecutive Majors not named The Masters.

On a course that rewards distance, I have a hard time imagining Na overcoming his 130th in driving distance and playing Day to an original -120. PGA Championship 2022 Odds, Tips, Golf Betting, Matchups


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