Met Office warns -3C Arctic blast to bring blizzards and gale force winds next week

Two different forecasts for next week (continued…)

Aiden McGivern explains what the forecast models show: “We don’t just run the computer model after running it 50 times, we make subtle changes early in the forecast to see how much those changes result in larger differences in the forecast escalate future. Sometimes they really do escalate into bigger differences, sometimes not so much. So that gives us a measure of how uncertain the forecast is.

“There are basically two camps for next week – one really quite cold and one much milder. It’s the milder ones supported for a moment by more computer model runs and hence it looks more likely.

“So the most likely scenario for next week is that after a cold snap earlier in the week it will then soften again with a return to wind and rain from the Atlantic. But when that collides with the cold air, there is always the possibility of a brief spell of snow on the leading edge, particularly over hills in central parts of the UK

“But you wouldn’t discount the less likely outcome. It’s still possible for it to get even colder by next week and stay mostly dry due to the influence of high pressure in the east, but snow flurries are likely, particularly on the east and south coasts. It’s less likely, but not impossible.” Met Office warns -3C Arctic blast to bring blizzards and gale force winds next week

Bobby Allyn

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