Joe’s Weather Blog: FOX 4 Winter Forecast (MON-12/6) | FOX 4 WDAF-TV of Kansas City

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Snow thermometer shows low temperature below 0. Low temperature in degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit. Winter weather is cold below 0 degrees. The snow thermometer shows low temperatures below zero. Low temperatures in Celsius and Fahrenheit. Winter weather is twenty below zero.

Well, it’s that time of year again. IF you missed the winter forecast this past weekend, in our Saturday morning special you missed our snow prediction. Don’t worry, I’ve got you back on the blog. I will reveal those forecasts to you below.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a pretty extensive winter blog about some of the things that I’m reviewing regarding some winter weather trends I’m noticing. Organize an important blog. I wanted to give you a link to that blog… so I don’t have to retype it all 🙂

This is a preview of the winter forecast blog

So let’s go deeper now.

In the past few weeks… the area has dried up a lot. No moisture and no lingering or forced cold air. We lack any kind of strong Canadian or Arctic connection to the Plains. It doesn’t appear to be too unusual for late November or early December. What bothers me… is that this prolonged cold spell could continue into Christmas. So, in a sense, we’re missing weeks of potential winter weather… no storm has come to fruition for quite some time.

KC seems to be struggling with the snow from the start. Part of my story about the winter forecast is how the 30-year average snowfall falls. The new one-year snow average here is about 18.2″, down 0.6 from the 30-year average. So as the climate is changing, we see lower total snowfall. Part of this is also revealed in the fact that KC winters are actually warming up. That’s a pretty clear trend line.

Courteous Climate Center

So not only are winter averages increasing… but actual days in winter are also higher than averages for temperatures.

Graphics via Climate Central

I was referring to the previous 30-year average… every 10 years… for climate purposes, we adjust the 30-year average. So, for example, our new set of averages reflects the weather for the period 1990-2020.

Graphics via Climate Central

What strikes me so far this late fall and winter is that we are likely to get very warm. We’ve had record highs… more could fall in the next 2 weeks (or at least be challenged). Just the product of not having any real connection to Canada’s cold air.

After a wet October, apart from a system on November 12th…nothing really. Also not expected for several weeks or so. December is a dry month here and just one storm can catch up quickly this time of year… but you can tell at least for a while the general atmosphere in the Plains wants to moderate. peace.

Even so, the temperate atmosphere is more humid…and IF you can set… make sure you can get some snow.

So, between everything I wrote in the previous blog… and how things are going… I have two numbers in mind… the first number is 22 ″. That would be above-average snow for KC. I committed or less to that number until about 10 days ago. Then, as the (warm) temperature trend became more and more real this month… I started to wonder… what will happen IF we don’t get a lot of snow this month… then basically 2 months of snow.

I never trust March/April for snow again. We had nothing last March but managed a monstrous 3.5 inches in April… Without it we would be stuck at about 12” (much to Michelle’s chagrin; )) Last winter FINALLY me and Garry each had 16.5″ snow forecasts… we got 15.5″ overall.

The second number that comes to mind is 13 ″… this is part of my thinking about what happened last winter with snow that people struggled so hard with. Honestly, I tend to miss my forecasts because I don’t go with my first thought… but I find myself thinking more and more about that lower number as December rolls around. gradually slip away from the view of snow.

Now, on average we get our first 1 ″ of snow on 12/15. So what is happening now is not so unusual. Let’s say that’s true… maybe even later than 12/15. Let’s take a look at the total snowfall over the past 20+ winters from December 15 onwards.


What about from January 1 onwards…


and 1/15 onwards…


There are some exceptions here BUT we should get that 1 inch by 1/15 otherwise snow enthusiasts won’t be too happy. In fact, IF we don’t hit that 1 inch by 1/1… of the previous 16 from the top… only about 6 have more than 13 for the rest of the season.

And that’s where it ends as you can see below. The odds are IF we get a few inches by the last week of December… I will shoot too low with my forecast… but if we stay here and still wait in January for our first inch… That’s not a good sign for the rest of winter!

The team gives their own thoughts… we don’t share our numbers with each other before “revealing” because we want to have a little fun with other people’s predictions. The team knows that I’m usually at the top… but this winter… despite my first thoughts… in the end I still can’t commit to that number.

So with all that said… here are our predictions. The team average is 16.5 and that’s what we’re going to go with…we’re going to see if there’s the closest individual…anyone that’s human Golden Snow Award as we say in the weather office. Garry had it the first year… got it back last year… actually we split it in half because we both had the same 16.5 forecast.



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