The Democrats are on the edge of an electoral disaster in 2022. Without a major shift in the party’s agenda and approach, the Democrats could suffer one of their electoral setbacks. The largest midterms of any party in recent history.
U.S. political party priorities have shifted 14 points in favor of the GOP in the last year alone, going from a 9-point advantage for the Democrats in early 2021 to a 5-point advantage for the GOP by the end of the year. track of Sparkling Water.
President Biden’s approval rating is also low – just 33% of Americans approve of his job performance, while a majority (53%) disapprove, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Biden’s ratings are also at record lows on key issues, including the economy (34%), foreign policy (35%) and the pandemic (39%).
Ultimately, the Democrats’ 2022 outlook is bleak: Republicans lead in the 2022 joint congressional vote, 44% to 43%. Notably, Republicans winning by a margin of just one or two points overall are likely enough for them to win back the House, based on the narrow majority of Democrats as well as the predicted outcome of the separation process. split, most will result in a GOP Advantage.
Indeed, a number of light blue seats were created through redistricting, although the advantage for the Democrats was negligible, given that they already held many of these seats. Republicans, on the other hand, have converted pale red seats into safer seats in states like Indiana, Oklahoma and Utah, according to analysis by FiveThirtyEight. There are also 28 retired Democrats in Congress – a historically high number.
When it comes to the Senate, most projections suggest a most ominous scenario for Democrats, in which Republicans have a much better chance of defending the seats currently held by GOP representatives. and select some of the seats currently held by Democrats.
These trends raise two questions: How did the Democrats dig themselves into this political hole? And how can they dig themselves out of it?
For the first several months of 2021, most polls showed a majority of voters approving Biden’s job performance. During this time, the administration had one goal — to widely distribute a Covid-19 vaccine and pass additional pandemic relief legislation — which it successfully accomplished.
But during the summer when the Delta variant surged, Americans became frustrated with the administration’s mixed messages about both the vaccine’s effectiveness and the trajectory of the pandemic. Inflation and consumer prices rose, and supply chain bottlenecks reduced the services Americans were accustomed to.
Meanwhile, the crisis at the southern border had spread, and it was clear that Vice President Kamala Harris, who was tasked with managing the situation, had no depth in the role. In the Fall, Republicans like Glenn Youngkin found success in statewide elections in part by taking control of the narrative around parents, choice, and public schools. , which has become a prominent issue.
While this is going on, Biden has remained mostly focused on pushing his “transformative” progressive code, the Build Back Better plan, while seemingly ignoring the important fundamentals. top priorities for voters: controlling rising prices, making health directives public, controlling crime, and keeping schools open.
At the time, voters began to turn away from a Democratic Party that had become focused on leftist priorities, and less focused on addressing the basic needs of the country as a whole. .
On top of that, the Democrats’ misguided attempts to pass progressive policies failed to materialize. The Build Back Better plan failed to pass in the Senate because key moderators did not accept it. And just last week, in what seemed like a desperate bid to win legislatively, Biden tried to rally Democrats in the Senate on an attempt to weaken the opposition group to pass. suffrage legislation — a measure that was also dead on arrival.
An important note: Joe Biden won the 2020 election as a moderate who is committed to bringing normality and problem solving to Washington. He failed to win the mandate to enact a progressive and divisive agenda — and neither did the Democrats in Congress, who won the Senate by the narrowest possible margin and kept control of the House of Commons with a small number of seats.
Some Democrats have drawn false parallels between Biden’s Build Back Better agenda and FDR’s “New Deal.” They didn’t realize that, in the mid to late 1930s, when most of the New Deal was passed, the Democrats controlled more than 300 House seats and 76 Senate seats. Apparently, that’s not the case today – the Senate is split 50-50 and Democrats control the House by just five seats.
Going forward, Democrats need to dedicate themselves to formulating, promoting, and adopting a centralized agenda — one that uses a limited and centralized amount of government to deliver Targeted and practical economic and social policies, public health policies, stronger borders, fiscal accountability that expand welfare, and educational policies that provide parents with choice .
If the party can’t figure out how to do this, President Biden’s ratings will continue to plummet and Democrats could find themselves in the minority in Congress — and as a minority party — in the election. many years to come.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
https://www.sbsun.com/2022/01/23/how-democrats-can-avoid-an-electoral-disaster-in-2022/ How Democrats can avoid election disaster in 2022 – San Bernardino Sun