Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction, line: Memphis will cover

The Grizzlies were a poor matchup for the Warriors.

Golden State struggles with Memphis’ length and athleticism. The Grizzlies have won three of the last four matchups between these teams and now host the Warriors, who will face off on the second night of the duel.

That road trip hasn’t gone well for the Warriors, who have lost four of their last five.

They’ll also be without Stephen Curry, who averages 25.5 points along with 6.3 assists and 5.2 rebounds. The Warriors are a whopping 11.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the ground, a big reason being that the league’s best 3-point shooter results in open shots for everyone else. Even so, the Warriors have just a 3-7 record without Curry and are averaging 111 points per 100 possessions without him.

Grizzlies guard De'Anthony Melton (center) celebrates with forward Kyle Anderson (right) and forward Dillon Brooks (left).
Grizzlies guard De’Anthony Melton (center) celebrates with forward Kyle Anderson (right) and forward Dillon Brooks (left).
USA TODAY sports

The Warriors are also 29th in turnover rate (15.2 percent), which will fuel a Grizzlies offense that ranks first in transition points per 100 possessions (4.4).

If the Warriors fail to score, they will find themselves in a track meeting against a Grizzlies team that has won four straight and eight of the last nine. The Grizzlies don’t just beat teams—they beat them with their average win margin of 19.5 points over that period.

Even without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are 17-2 by a +351 points difference. They destroy teams with a defense that keeps opponents at 107.6 points per 100 possessions. Desmond Bane has stepped up in Morant’s absence, scoring 24.3 points on 57.8 percent shooting and 53.3 percent from behind the arch. He also has 5.5 assists and 4.3 rebounds. With the return of Dillon Brooks, this is a deep team.

My model makes the Grizzlies -10, and given the situational point and rest advantage, that number feels short.

The game: Grizzlies -8 Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction, line: Memphis will cover


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