The third to last full match day of the English Premier League season takes place this weekend and features some influential encounters.
Nothing is bigger than Saturday afternoon’s clash between Liverpool FC and Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield, a game set to impact both the Championship and the top four races. Elsewhere, Leicester City-Everton and Arsenal-Leeds United will influence the relegation race.
But I choose to look elsewhere for my best bets of the weekend. So, without further ado, here are my two plays for Round 36 of the Premier League season.
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Best Bet #1 – Crystal Palace Moneyline (-145) vs Watford
Some might question Crystal Palace’s motivation here but I believe they are capable of an easy win on Saturday.
So far this season, manager Patrick Viera’s side have been an excellent home side. At the start of their meeting with Watford, Palace have an expected goal difference of +9.3 at home, the sixth-best mark in the Premier League. Additionally, a positive regression could be on the way based on those performances, as the Eagles have an actual goal difference of +8 in 17 home games.
Palace have also dominated at home against the worst teams in the league. In five games against the bottom six teams in the EPL, Palace are 2-0-3 (WLD) but have won all five games on expected goals. Additionally, his attack generated 1.54 xG/90 minutes in those games, versus a season’s performance of 1.22 xG/90, per fbref.com.
On the other hand, Watford’s loss to Burnley has essentially sent them to relegation unless it was an outright miracle. Also, Palace defeated the Hornets 4-1 in the second leg at Vicarage Road while winning the expected goal match at their worse venue 1-3-1-2.
Additionally, Watford have struggled to pick up points with the league’s best home sides. In eight games against the top ten xGDiff home teams in the EPL, Watford are 0-7-1 (WLD) and have lost all eight games on expected goals. His defense has also allowed 1.84 xG/90 in those eight games, versus a season average of 1.73.
For these reasons I think you would get a discount on Palace and even try to support some alternative spreads.
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Best bet #2 – Burnley/Aston Villa under 2.5 goals (-135)
Odds on DraftKings sportsbook
This will indeed be the first clash between these teams this season but I expect a very sleepy game.
Away from home, Villa have scored the eight least expected goals in the league, according to fbref.com. Although Burnley’s attack has scored at least one expected goal in six straight games, the level of defensive opposition has not been good. Five of those six sides are outside the top-10 in xGA/90 minutes this season, with all six below Aston Villa.
Nonetheless, Burnley’s defense has held up well at home. This season, the Clarets have conceded just 1.34 xG/90 minutes at Turf Moor, down from a season average of 1.43 xG/90 minutes. In addition, 11 of Burnley’s 17 home games have ended under that mark, while eight of Villa’s last nine away games have met less than 2.5 goals expected.
Also, Burnley have kept three consecutive opponents under 1.2 expected goals, while Villa’s defense have kept two consecutive opponents under 0.5 expected goals and nine consecutive opponents under 1.5 expected goals.
With Villa having nothing to play for and Burnley having to emphasize defense in a relegation battle, expect a few points contest in this game.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/07/english-premier-league-odds-predictions-picks-crystal-palace/ English Premier League odds, predictions, tips: Crystal Palace