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Best Valspar Championship Bets: Tournament Winners and Props

After Cam Smith’s victory at the Players Championship, the PGA Tour continues its Florida swing and heads to Tampa.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is home to the Valspar Championship. Despite a late elimination at TPC Sawgrass, the tournament still features five top ten players.

Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland (+900) come to Tampa as consensus co-favorites for the event, while Collin Morikawa (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Louis Oosthuizen (+1600) are not far behind.


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While I won’t be targeting any outrights this week, I still see a lot of value on the board. So, without further ado, here are my best bets for the Valspar Championship:

Best Bet #1 – Russell Knox Top 40 (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook

Knox put on a strong performance on the Players, earning a T6 finish thanks to a 70th lap in the final round.

Combine that with a good course history at this event and I think you get a bargain at this price. The Scot has two consecutive top 25 finishes on the Copperhead course and does many things well in building my model for the week that contribute to the success here.

A key factor in success in the Valspar Championship is the ability to go deep on the par 5, and Knox does that quite well. He’s ranked 21st in shots won on par 5s for the last 50 rounds. He’s also combined in his last two appearances at the Valspar to shoot 14-unders on the four par 5s.

Another factor that ranks Knox relatively high in my model is his ability to score between 400 and 450 yards on par 4s. These holes will make up nearly 28 percent of all 72 holes this week, and Knox ranks second in my model for his ability to score on these holes. With three of the five holes historically being among the nine easiest holes on the course, you can expect Knox to benefit.

Overall, Knox enters fifth from Valspar in my model, so I think there’s plenty of room for a top 40 play, and I’ll happily take this number with plus money.


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Best Bet #2 – Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+150)Fanduel Sportsbook

There is one element of my model that disagrees with Fitzpatrick – he’s 106th near the hole between 175 and 200 yards – but there are other encouraging signs.

Fitzpatrick ranks first overall in the field and 12th overall on par 4s on the aforementioned SG: Par 5s metric, scoring between 400 and 450 yards. He also scored strongly with players in key scoring categories – the Englishman made shots on the field on both the tee to the green and the approach – and played the par 5s in the three-under at Sawgrass despite missing the cut .

Fitzpatrick has no course history to deviate from for the Valspar Championship, but he does have a strong string of results in the event. Prior to his MC with the Players, he had four straight top 12 finishes, two of which were ninth or better.

Additionally, Fitzpatrick is succeeding on the most correlated course for this event. Per datagolf.com, the course with the strongest correlations to the Copperhead Course is the Concession Golf Club. Fitzpatrick scored a solo 11 at last season’s WGC-Workday at Concession. Space.

Finally, this may be nothing either, but it’s worth noting that Fitzpatrick loves playing in the state of Florida. He has had a top-20 finish in five of his last six events in the state. If he continues that strong record down the par 5 you can expect good impact performance from the Brit.

Best Bet #3 – Justin Thomas Top 10 (+135), Fanduel Sportsbook

In his last 36 laps, Thomas appears first in my model and is second in three out of five measured categories.

JT emerges first in SG: T2G and gains opportunities while finishing second behind Fitzpatrick on the SG: Par 5s metric. And although he posted a T33 at TPC Sawgrass, I’m heartened by the fact that Thomas won nearly five shots on the field in the tee-to-green category, while also winning north of two shots on the field off the tee and in the approach.

Before that finish, Thomas had back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Genesis Invitational and the Phoenix Open. There’s also good recent history to consider at Valspar, where he finished 13th solo in 2021, winning north of 13 strokes down the field from tee to green.

Justin Thomas plays an approach shot into the seventh hole in the second round of the Players Championship.
Justin Thomas plays an approach shot into the seventh hole in the second round of the Players Championship.
Getty Images

The flat hitter let Thomas down this week when he fell north of six strokes in field putting, according to fantasynational.com, but every other metric was solid.

If Thomas can show average putting metrics this weekend, I expect his ball strike will set the American up for his third top-10 in his last four events.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/16/valspar-championship-best-bets-tournament-winners-and-props/ Best Valspar Championship Bets: Tournament Winners and Props

JOE HERNANDEZ

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