AT&T Byron Nelson Matchup Betting: Joaquin Niemann, Tommy Fleetwood

We’re less than 24 hours from the AT&T Byron Nelson, which gives us one last chance to share some tips.

Having already covered my favorite derivative picks for the event, this column will focus on my top matchup games. In one instance, I identified a favorite that I believe should be a bigger favorite, while the other matchup constitutes a false favorite.

So, without further hesitation, here are my best matchup bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson. All odds are subject to change and are reflected at the time of writing.

Best Bet #1 – Joaquin Niemann (-125) over Talor Gooch

Odds via BetMGM

That’s one of the biggest modeling variances I have, so I’m happy to set that price with Niemann.

In the last 36 qualifying rounds, Niemann is 14th in my model and is no worse than 17th in the three most important categories. On the other hand, Gooch ranks 139th in my 36-lap model and ranks outside the top-100 in four out of six statistical categories (although he’s a respectable ninth in bogey avoidance).

Even over the last 24 laps, Niemann ranks 24th while Gooch is still 63rd overall. In this model, Niemann ranks 26th and 9th in SG: Approach and SG: T2G, respectively, while Gooch ranks 50th and 72nd, respectively, in the two major statistical categories.

Also, in his final 24 laps, Niemann is second in the field in SG:T2G and third overall in birdies won. Gooch ranks 32nd and 44th in these categories, respectively.

Add to that Bentgrass is Niemann’s best putting surface – he’s gaining about .11 strokes/round putting on Bent – and I think he’ll finish ahead of Gooch this weekend.

Best Bet #2 – Tommy Fleetwood (+105) over Jordan Spieth

Odds on DraftKings sportsbook

It’s definitely scary going up against a player who finished in the top 10 here last year, but Fleetwood have proven to be incredibly reliable of late.

In his last five starts on tour, the Englishman has ridden 20-22-16-14-10. As for Spieth, he’s been a boom-or-bust contender lately. He has ridden 26-MC-35-MC-1 in his last five starts.

Also, my model actually likes Fleetwood better this week. He’s 23rd in my 24-lap model and 38th in the field in his last 36 qualifying rounds. Spieth takes 36th and 56th place in these two models.

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Additionally, Fleetwood generally ranks 15th in the field in birdies or better over the last 24 rounds, while Spieth is 63rd in the same category. And while approach play is a definite problem for Fleetwood – he’s 80th in SG: Approach in his last 24 qualifying rounds – he’s won strokes in three consecutive events there, so maybe he’s turning a corner.

For all of these reasons, I’d rather have these players rated as pick ’em, so I’m happy to shoot plus-money with Fleetwood.