I have heat futures. (And Bucks futures. And Cs futures.) I think this team was underrated in the market as the #1 seed.
But look at the first two games of this series. The Hawks, two days from an emotional road win to secure the No. 8 seed in Cleveland, go into an early game in South Beach and are beaten after failing to hit the wide side of a barn in the first half while the Heat has the best shooting performance compared to the statistical expectations of all teams in games 1.
In the second game, Jimmy Butler needs a career 45-point night, including four made 3s for a guy who doesn’t shoot them and a 0-of-6 night from Danilo Gallinari for the Heat to apply just enough pressure to cover the spread.
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The Heat are the better team and they will win this series. But the market reflects a big gap between those two teams and we basically have three straight halves where the Hawks have stuck, with the streak going to Atlanta where the Hawks were a lot better.
Atlanta had the eighth best net rating in home games this season, just behind the Heat in seventh place. People will look at the seedings and the 2-0 lead for the Heat and get ahead of themselves. But I think Atlanta can make a series out of this; Miami’s ceiling isn’t high enough to make a clear break, and we saw that in the first two games.
Nate McMillan starting John Collins in the middle was a great move that paid off immediately. They will continue to feel more comfortable defending the Heat and Miami’s supporting cast will struggle more. I like Atlanta finding its way to two wins to force that streak to at least a six, although I still think Miami will win the streak.
Moore’s best bet: Hawks +2.5 games (+172, FanDuel)
Jay was the Mr. Wright of bettors
A news dump Wednesday night sent shockwaves through the college basketball world as Jay Wright resigned as coach at Villanova.
Wright is known as one of football’s best coaches. He has led the Wildcats to two national championship wins and four Final Four appearances, including last season.
Villanova started the day 20/1 at DraftKings to win the 2023 national title. After the Wright news, they switched to odds of 22/1. The Wildcats are also currently 22/1 at BetMGM but can now be bought at 40/1 on both Caesars and FanDuel.
Obviously, Wright’s departure will likely be difficult for the school’s fanbase. Saddest of all are the longtime bettors at Villanova.
In all six major sports (NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB), Villanova is the most profitable betting team in the last ten years: 196-133-9 ATS (59.6 percent).
And how profitable was Villanova under Wright? A $100 bettor would have been up $5,062 for a +15 percent ROI.
Wright was head coach at Hofstra from 1994 to 2001 before taking over at Villanova ahead of the 2001–02 season. During his time at Villanova, he posted a record of 520-197 (.725) and won eight Big East regular-season titles and four Big East tournament crowns.
The sport has become accustomed to celebrity college coaches retiring, with Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski announcing their departures last year. Coach K was 75 when he retired and Williams was 70. Wright, 60, is one of the few college basketball coaches to retire while still in the prime of their coaching career.
Kyle Neptune succeeds Wright. Neptune spent seven seasons on Wright’s staff at Villanova before taking over as head coach from Fordham last year. He went 16-16 in his freshman year with the Rams.
https://nypost.com/2022/04/22/hawks-vs-heat-prediction-atlanta-will-make-this-long-series/ Atlanta will make this long streak