RALEIGH, NC (WNCN) — As candidates across North Carolina scramble to get every vote they can by next Tuesday’s primary, some of the winners will have a much tougher job when they cross the finish line in November.
North Carolina’s population has grown enough over the past decade to earn an additional seat in Congress, bringing the total to 14.
Based on voter registration, there could be an even split, with District 13 being the only rash.
This district includes Johnston County and parts of Wake, Harnett and Wayne counties. Partly urban but mostly rural, it has proven to be a major disputed race among Republicans.
While the seat of resigning Rep. GK Butterfield, a historic Democratic stronghold, isn’t seen as a complete toss-up, it’s not absolute.
District 1 covers much of the northeastern part of the state.
It has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
But as with most races, it is the non-partisan voter who will make the difference.
“So I’d say a safe bet is probably 8/6. If Republicans get nine seats, that’s going to be a very good year and turnout for Republicans,” said Michael Bitzer, professor of political science at Catawba College.
Bitzer said which candidate wins Tuesday’s primary is less important than it used to be.
It mostly boils down to partying.
“It’s really not that much about the candidates these days, or the politics, or the issues. It’s about how energized and how mobilized the electoral base is for both parties,” he said.
Elections outside of the year usually mean a big win for the party that doesn’t control the White House.
So the momentum is behind the Republicans.
But the US Supreme Court and a congressional investigation could very well swing the pendulum in some races.
“I think two wildcards for November that we’ll find out over the summer are certainly the Supreme Court’s definitive view on whether Roe v. Wade will or will not be overturned, as well as the possible Jan. 6 hearings for the committee, which could also release its report in the fall,” Bitzer said.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/your-local-election-hq/a-look-at-ncs-congressional-districts-ahead-of-primary-election-day/ A look at NC’s congressional districts ahead of primary election day